Despite a strong month of sales for its new lineup of iPhones, watches, and AirPods Pro, Apple Inc. (AAPL) has received a stock downgrade from Wall Street. Analysts at Jefferies warn that expectations surrounding how fast customers will upgrade their iPhones have become excessive, and have thus revised their forecast. Analyst Edison Lee cut his rating on the stock to underperform from hold, writing that the stock’s current valuation prices in an “overly bullish iPhone outlook.” Shares fell 0.9% on Friday.

After slightly cutting his price target to $205.16 from $205.82, Lee wrote that “better demand for iPhone 17, partly due to a price cut on the base model, is already in the price,” and this “has led to excessive expectations on 18 Fold, and the replacement cycle.” He went on to add that it was unclear what market there would be for a phone that costs nearly $2,000. Apple stock last closed at $257.13, meaning the analyst’s new target points to a decline of more than 20% for AAPL shares.

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Meanwhile, other experts on Wall Street have differing forecasts from Jeffries. Analysts at Wedbush lifted their price target to $310 from $270 in an analyst note last week, writing that early demand for the recent launch means this is “turning into a real upgrade cycle” for the company after years of softer launches, “based on the early strong demand signs.” Lead analyst at the firm, Dan Ives, called this past weekend a strong one for Apple, and estimated that iPhone 17 demand is running 10–15% ahead of last year’s iPhone 16. This growing demand could mean even better sales that could send revenue for AAPL sky high heading into the final months of 2025.

Other analysts on Wall Street share Wedbush’s analysis of Apple (AAPL) stock. Daiwa Capital also supports an upward trajectory with a $275 target, backed by a strong overall analyst score of 75.4. Tigress Financial and Melius Research also maintain their ratings, showing continued support.

At press time, AAPL is trading near the top of its 52-week range and above its 200-day simple moving average.