Bitcoin 2025: Can the Crypto Giant Break $170K and Reach New Heights?

Bitcoin holders are reducing sales, reflecting changes in market activity as the price nears key levels.
Historical data shows price increases often continue even after peaks in holder distribution patterns.
Current market trends indicate long-term holder activity could signal volatility but not necessarily the end of the bull cycle.

Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTHs) are distributing their assets slower, just 12% below all-time highs. However, data from Glassnode reveals that the 30-day percent change in LTH supply has reached levels seen in prior market cycles.

https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/1877745469817774430

Historical Patterns in LTH Supply Changes

The data suggests a crucial pattern: during past cycles, price movements continued upward even after peaks in LTH distribution. Furthermore, the 30-day moving average (MA) of LTH accumulation supply change shows distribution peaks align with extreme market sentiment.

This indicator reached significant extremes, as the chart shows, which tracks the supply ratio of long-term to short-term holders. As LTH distribution slows, the broader implications for Bitcoin’s macro top remain uncertain. Past trends indicate the market may still climb, though distribution peaks often act as turning points.

Additionally, the current peak in distribution mirrors historical cycles, hinting at similar trends in Bitcoin's price trajectory. Whether this signals the conclusion of a bull market is still undetermined.

Is the Bull Market Ending?

Although distribution is slowing, Bitcoin prices have historically continued climbing even after such peaks in long-term holder behavior. This insight underscores that a peak in LTH supply change does not necessarily coincide with market tops.

The highlighted extremes in LTH metrics indicate caution for traders, as historical data shows such points often precede volatility. Furthermore, the observed trends highlight the complexity of predicting price movements based solely on LTH behavior.

Consequently, Bitcoin’s supply dynamics suggest a potential for further price increases. The market remains uncertain whether these conditions signify an approaching macro peak or continued growth.

Moreover, understanding LTH behavior is critical with Bitcoin’s price nearing all-time highs. The slowdown in distribution, though significant, may not immediately dictate broader market outcomes. Glassnode’s analysis illuminates Bitcoin’s intricate market dynamics, especially in the context of LTH and short-term holder (STH) interactions. The coming weeks will be pivotal in determining whether these trends persist.

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