Bitcoin (BTC) has faced increasing criticism as investors look for signs that the market has bottomed.

While some suggest that the worst may already be behind us, on-chain analyst James Check argues that a true capitulation event could still be ahead, with the price falling to $65,000.

Check, who shared his views on the TFTC podcast, described the $65,000 level as the “real market average,” saying that it represents the average cost basis for active investors in the space. He believes that a drop to this level could trigger significant market pressure, and investors who have been holding Bitcoin for years in particular would feel the pain of unrealized losses.

This expected price drop is closely aligned with the strategy of prominent bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor, whose cost floor hovers around $67,500. Saylor’s investment philosophy emphasizes long-term holding, so a move into that region could potentially create more volatility.

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Looking beyond the $65,000 zone, Check also noted a strong support range around $49,000-$50,000. This zone corresponds to the launch of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in 2024 and suggests a $1 trillion market cap for BTC. A drop to $40,000 is unlikely, Check said, unless there is a global recession.

In addition, Check highlighted the “chopsolidation” period in 2024, when Bitcoin trades in a wide range between $50,000 and $70,000 for an extended period. According to him, this consolidation phase could form a strong support base for the cryptocurrency moving forward.

While Check expects declines from the $65,000 level, he is confident that the market has important support levels to prevent serious price collapses unless larger economic factors intervene.

*This is not investment advice.

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