On September 28, Toncoin (TON) price retested $6 for the first time in over a month. However, the altcoin could not hold on to the threshold for long as the price dropped to $5.40

Despite recent efforts to recover, TON’s price continues to face challenges. Here are the key levels to watch as this analysis highlights why a further downturn is likely.

Toncoin Chart Forms Death Cross

According to the daily chart, Toncoin’s price is attempting to erase some losses. However, the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) suggests that it could be challenging. The EMA uses current price movement to evaluate bullish or bearish trends.

When the EMA is above the price, the trend is bearish. Conversely, if the price is above the EMA, the trend is bullish. With TON’s price at $5.40, the image below shows that the 20 EMA (blue) and 50 EMA (yellow) are above the Telegram-native coin price.

Particularly, the 50 EMA had crossed above the 20 EMA. This position referred to as a death cross, indicated that the trend around Toncoin is bearish, and the price might fall below $5 soon.

Read more: 6 Best Toncoin (TON) Wallets in 2024

Toncoin Daily Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Following the recent decline, on-chain data revealed a surge in Toncoin’s realized losses. Yesterday, holders incurred losses on 788,000 tokens.

When there is a high level of unrealized losses, it suggests that investors are losing confidence in a rebound. As a result, the lack of buying pressure could prevent the token from recovering its lost value. If this trend persists, TON’s price may continue to fall.

Toncoin Daily Transaction Volume in Loss. Source: Santiment TON Price Prediction: Bears Are In Control

On looking at the daily chart, BeInCrypto observed that TON has fallen below the $5.41 support. This decline implies that bulls might no longer be able to defend the token from going below $5.

Furthermore, resistance at $5.68 could make a Toncoin rebound difficult. Therefore, the cryptocurrency’s likely movement will be another decline. Considering the bearish technical setup, TON’s price could drop to $4.89.

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Toncoin Daily Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

In a highly bearish scenario, the altcoin could decline to $4.63. However, if bulls can break the $5.68 resistance, this prediction will not come to pass. Instead, Toncoin’s price might hit $6.69 and possibly $7.29 in a highly bullish situation

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