Bitcoin bull market remains unconfirmed, Nansen says

Bitcoin has gained roughly 22% over the past month, but Nansen analyst Nicolai Søndergaard has warned that weak spot flows, divided whale positions, and ETF withdrawals have yet to confirm a new bull market.

Bitcoin remains below its seven-day average despite maintaining positive daily and weekly trends. Nansen tracked about 3,700 BTC in net exchange inflows from labelled entities over the past week. Large Hyperliquid whales remain heavily short as open interest falls and taker selling continues. Bitcoin must hold $77,400–$77,650 before another test of the $80,000 resistance level.

Bitcoin’s 22% recovery lacks spot confirmation

Nansen senior research analyst Nicolai Søndergaard told crypto.news that Bitcoin’s market structure has improved after its 22% monthly recovery, though several flow indicators have stopped him from declaring the start of a confirmed bull phase. Positive daily and weekly trends suggest Bitcoin has moved past the weakest part of its previous decline, according to the analyst. More recent data have produced a less convincing picture, with BTC trading below its seven-day average while short-term momentum remains weak.

“The recovery is real, but spot flows haven’t confirmed the bull market yet,” Søndergaard said.

Labelled entities tracked by Nansen sent a net 3,700 BTC to exchanges during the past week. Because exchange deposits can precede sales, the analyst included the increase among the factors limiting his confidence in the rally, although transfers to trading platforms do not always lead to immediate selling.

US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds also recorded around $236 million in withdrawals in the latest reading cited by Søndergaard. The reversal followed a period of stronger institutional activity during August, when ETF demand supported Bitcoin’s advance from below $65,000 to above $80,000.

As previously reported by crypto.news, Bitcoin gained approximately 24% in August, delivering its strongest performance for the month since 2017. US spot ETFs attracted $1.92 billion during their strongest weekly run since October 2025, while $6.55 billion in short liquidations accumulated across two weeks.

The later outflow does not erase the earlier buying, but Søndergaard said the market still needs consistent spot demand before the recovery can qualify as a lasting cycle turn. “That combination suggests the recovery still lacks consistent spot-flow confirmation,” he said, referring to ETF withdrawals, exchange deposits and weaker short-term momentum.

Whale positions leave Bitcoin exposed in both directions

Large Bitcoin traders have not adopted one clear position during the recovery, according to Nansen’s data. Whales tracked across the firm’s monitored addresses remain slightly net long, while accounts trading large notional amounts on Hyperliquid hold heavy short exposure. Funding rates remain positive but moderate, indicating that traders holding long perpetual-futures positions are paying shorts without reaching the elevated levels commonly associated with an overcrowded trade.

At the same time, declining open interest shows that total derivatives exposure has contracted, while taker-flow data point to continued market selling. According to Søndergaard, the combination creates the conditions for a short-covering bounce because lower-timeframe momentum has already entered oversold territory. A price increase could force bearish traders to close positions by purchasing