Bitcoin funds are buying again. Why is spot demand still weak?

U.S. spot Bitcoin funds took in billions of dollars in late September, yet an onchain estimate of demand for coins across the wider market remained negative. The figures measure different things, and their divergence has become central to judging whether the latest rally has enough buyers beyond the fund channel.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs drew about $2.39 billion from September 21 through September 25, according to Farside’s daily figures. CryptoQuant’s 30 day apparent spot demand improved from around negative 182,000 BTC on September 24 to negative 101,000 BTC on October 1, but had not turned positive.

Fund shares can trade between investors without creating new shares or requiring the fund to buy additional Bitcoin. The latest daily fund totals are less decisive: Farside recorded a $189.9 million inflow on October 2 and an $89.8 million outflow on October 5; its October 6 row still has missing entries.

The next test is whether fund creations continue while coin accumulation, exchange demand and price action confirm a broader change. The September burst is visible in Farside Investors’ fund table. Five trading days brought approximately $999 million, $714.7 million, $346.9 million, $190.7 million and $134.5 million, respectively. Those are net dollar flows into U.S. spot products, not a count of every Bitcoin purchased by every participant in the market. They show substantial new demand for an investment wrapper after a much less consistent summer.

The CryptoQuant apparent demand series gives a different view. Its 30 day reading was still below zero at the start of October despite improving markedly from late September. The distinction is not a contradiction in arithmetic: one series tracks net subscriptions to a set of funds in dollars over trading days; the other estimates the change in coin demand across the spot market over a rolling month. Neither identifies every ultimate buyer.

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