Bitcoin’s recovery stalls just short of rescuing its last underwater cohort

Bitcoin’s recovery stalls just short of rescuing its last underwater cohort

Yearly buyer cohorts and U.S. spot ETF investors offer a map of potential support and resistance as bitcoin retreats below $84,000.

By James Van Straten | Edited by Jamie Crawley

Oct 7, 2026, 6:38 a.m. EDT

Only one yearly bitcoin buyer cohort remains underwater, according to checkonchain data: investors who bought in 2025, with an average cost basis of approximately $88,000, which may now be forming a key resistance level due to sell pressure from relatively recent buyers.

Bitcoin reached a monthly high of $87,500 in September before trading sideways and subsequently retreating below $84,000 as of Wednesday. These yearly volume-weighted cost bases have acted as support and resistance throughout the cycle. As bitcoin approaches a cohort’s average purchase price, some investors may look to exit at breakeven, while others may add to their positions.

Bitcoin climbed to approximately $82,100 in May, matching the 2024 cohort’s average cost basis, before encountering resistance and falling back to $60,000. It eventually broke above that level in August. The 2023 cohort’s cost basis, currently around $65,000, has provided a recurring support level. When bitcoin fell towards $60,000 in February, that cohort’s cost basis was also near that level