Toscale: Bitcoin Nears $87K as ETF Inflows Surge (12h)

Crypto markets are driven by renewed institutional demand and technical breakouts, with Bitcoin reclaiming the $87,000 level after wiping out over $200 million in short positions. The dominant theme is the divergence between spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and Ether outflows, highlighting a rotation of capital that Toscale traders are monitoring closely for alpha.

Bitcoin’s surge past $85,000 was facilitated by the disappearance of sell walls, allowing price to reach its highest level since September 23. This momentum is underpinned by $102.7 million in net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs on October 1, contrasting sharply with $55.4 million in outflows from Ether ETFs. Traders are now eyeing supply zones near $88,000 for the next potential breakout, as the asset climbs toward $87,000.

In the altcoin sector, the Drift Foundation has opened redemptions for DFX tokens following a $290 million exploit on Solana. Early claimants can redeem approximately 0.0104 USDT per dollar lost, with rates expected to rise as recovery funds grow. This development marks a critical step in the protocol's restitution process, requiring claims from original wallets before January 1, 2028.

Regulatory developments also shifted on October 1, with the SEC proposing a new custody framework that would allow investment advisers and regulated funds to hold their own crypto keys under specific circumstances. This proposal seeks to redefine the evidence required for self-custody, potentially impacting how institutional players manage digital assets.

Calendar — past:

EU Inflation Rate YoY Flash came in at 4.2%, significantly above the 3.6% forecast and prior 3.2%. EU Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y was reported at 2.5%, up from 2.4%. US Unemployment Change showed a gain of 23.587K against a forecast of 17.6K, while the Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.1%.

Calendar — ahead:

The primary focus is the US Non-Farm Employment Change, with an actual of 162K against a forecast of 89K. The Average Hourly Earnings m/m is forecast at 0.3%. These data points will heavily influence near-term rate expectations.

Market read: Bitcoin’s technical breakout above $85,000 was fueled by short liquidations and strong ETF inflows, but resistance remains at $88,000. The upcoming US jobs report presents a binary risk; the higher-than-expected NFP print of 162K suggests labor market resilience, which could dampen rate cut hopes. Traders must weigh the bullish crypto momentum against potential macro headwinds from sticky inflation data, including the EU CPI flash at 4.2%. The divergence in ETF flows signals selective institutional appetite rather than broad-based risk-on sentiment.