Toscale: BTC Rejected at $87K, Bybit Hack Traced (6h)

Bitcoin faces persistent selling pressure at the $87,000 level, failing to break higher for the third time since late September as equities hover near records. ZachXBT revealed a $349,700 undercover operation that traced Lazarus Group funds from the Bybit theft to a Chinese laundering network. Meanwhile, Rain is pursuing a U.S. national trust bank charter to custody digital assets and issue stablecoins under OCC supervision.

Bitcoin’s monthly closes rise with three consecutive higher closes, yet $87,000 remains a formidable resistance zone. Retail sentiment has shifted from bearish to neutral as conversation volume dips, while ETF inflows and long-term holder accumulation continue amid mixed macro data.

Calendar — past:

HSBC Composite PMI printed 55.9 versus a forecast of 56.5, indicating slower growth in the HSBC region. HSBC Services PMI came in at 55.2 against a forecast of 56.2, showing contraction in service sector momentum. Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) dropped sharply to 2.7% from a forecast of 13.1%, signaling weak industrial demand. Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) rose 2.7% against a forecast of -0.9%, suggesting some stabilization in new orders.

Calendar — ahead:

Retail Sales (YoY) is forecast at 1.1% with a previous reading of 0.6%, serving as a key consumer spending gauge. BoE's Mann speech will provide insights into UK monetary policy direction. Retail Sales (MoM) is expected at 0.4% versus a previous -0.6%, offering further detail on consumer trends. Founder x VC Summit brings AI and Web3 startups together during TOKEN2049 week. Ethereum Foundation targets Glamsterdam upgrade for mainnet in Q4 2026. Hyperliquid (HYPE) Sets $856 Million Token Unlock for October 6 poses potential selling pressure.

Market read:

Bitcoin’s repeated rejection at $87,000 highlights strong overhead supply despite bullish monthly closes. Weak factory orders and PMI data suggest cooling global growth, which may cap risk appetite in the near term. The upcoming retail sales data will be critical for determining if consumer spending can support further equity strength. Token unlocks for HYPE and regulatory developments like Rain’s charter application add sector-specific volatility. Traders should monitor $85,600 as immediate support while watching for a decisive break above $87,000 to signal renewed momentum.