Toscale Digest: BTC ETF Stagnation & FIL Supply Shock (6h)

Bitcoin ETF flows have stalled after a late-September surge, while supply-side shocks in altcoins dominate the narrative. Toscale tracks these diverging pressures as markets digest weak institutional demand against tightening tokenomics.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $386.3 million in net outflows during October's first seven sessions, despite a brief $21.1 million inflow on Friday . The broader 13-session trend shows only $232 million added after a massive $1.7 billion two-day burst in late September . This cooling trend highlights a sharp contrast to the previous week's $999 million single-day record . Bitcoin price action remains resilient above $84,000 despite the outflows .

In altcoin supply news, Filecoin (FIL) is jumping 9.4% to $1.22 as its six-year vesting schedule ends . This event cuts annualized new FIL supply by approximately 75%, reducing it from 89 million to roughly 21 million . Meanwhile, XRP has dropped 16% from its September high, testing critical support at $1.37 . On the DeFi front, Aave loans on Monad and Arc pose liquidation risks with health factors as low as 1.01 .

Calendar — past:

Consumer Confidence released at 03:00 UTC.

Calendar — ahead:

BoE's Breeden speech at 09:30 UTC.

ECB's Vujčić speech at 10:00 UTC.

Change Tick Size for USDT Perpetual Contract Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Aptos (APT) Vesting Ends October 12, Cutting Monthly Releases 60% to 4.54M at 12:00 UTC.

Market read: Bitcoin's ability to hold $84,000 despite ETF outflows suggests strong spot demand absorbing institutional selling. The Filecoin supply shock provides a localized bullish catalyst but does not offset broader macro caution ahead of central bank speeches. Traders should monitor the USDT tick size change for potential liquidity shifts in perpetual markets. XRP's breakdown below $1.37 could trigger further deleveraging if support fails.