Toscale: BTC Liquidations Mount as Chamath Reverses Stance (6h)

Crypto markets are grappling with a sharp downside bias as Bitcoin tests critical support levels, triggering significant long liquidations. The sentiment is further clouded by high-profile contrarian signals, including Chamath Palihapitiya’s reversal on Bitcoin’s long-term viability. Amid this volatility, Toscale monitors the rapid shift in institutional positioning and derivative data.

Coinbase options data reveals that 64% of long BTC positions were opened above the current spot price of $80,595, creating a dense cluster of vulnerable leverage. This structure contributed to over $346 million in long liquidations as the asset dropped, highlighting the fragility of recent upside bets. The demand for puts is rising, indicating a clear downside bias among traders.

In the altcoin sector, Dogecoin ETFs recorded outflows of $538,000, marking the largest drop since August. This decline coincides with a 5.62% slip in DOGE’s price to $0.07553, reflecting cautious institutional appetite. Meanwhile, broader market narratives are being disrupted by Chamath Palihapitiya’s prediction that AI will eventually hack the Bitcoin protocol, sending its value to zero—a stark contrast to his previous $1 million target.

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Market read: Near-term crypto risk remains elevated due to the high concentration of underwater longs on Coinbase. The $80,595 spot level is now a key reference point; failure to hold could accelerate liquidation cascades. Traders should watch for increased put demand as a leading indicator of further downside pressure. The lack of immediate macro catalysts leaves price action dependent on technical flows and sentiment shifts.